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Lowden, MI5's River Cartwright on Slow Horses, leads the Bond odds at 62%
Lowden plays an MI5 agent on Apple TV's Slow Horses, and he is the betting favorite for 007 while the Bond casting remains unannounced.
The favorite and the field
Oddschecker reports that Lowden leads the Bond odds at 8/13, a 62% probability of landing the role. [1] On Apple TV's Slow Horses, he plays MI5 agent River Cartwright. [2]
Turner follows with a reported 25% chance. [1] Josh O'Connor takes third place at 13%. [1]
Other names linked to the role include Jack O'Connell, Richard Madden, Aaron Pierre, Jacob Elordi and Henry Cavill. [1] Jack O'Connell and Josh O'Connor are also reportedly in the mix. [2]
There has been no official announcement regarding the James Bond casting. [1] The Bond girl market has its own odds: per BetOnline, Margaret Qualley leads at 33%, followed by Sydney Sweeney at 25%. [1]
The Oldman nudge
Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman suggested that the filmmakers had already chosen Lowden, which intensified speculation about his chances. [1]
In an interview last month with Canada's The Morning Show, a speaker said the filmmakers had made their choice but had not announced it yet. [1]
Why Turner is a double-edged pick
Turner is described as looking like he might have been grown in a lab to play Bond. [2] That is seen as the best thing about him as a choice, but also a potential detriment if producers want someone more original. [2]
A decade-long commitment
The Bond actor must adhere to the highest professional standards for more than a decade, since the role is a massive commitment. [2] Bond actors are expected to make a four-or-five-film commitment. [2] A Bond film has a typical production process of nine months. [2]
Barbara Broccoli, who led the Bond producing team until last year, told Variety in 2022 that casting Bond is a 10-to-12-year commitment. [2] She said not everybody wants to make that commitment, and that it is not just showing up for a couple of months of filming. [2]
What the producers want to avoid
The ideal Bond actor should not sound off divisively about politics, get into messy domestic disputes, or start going on public benders. [2] He should be an agreeable brand ambassador who treats fans respectfully and gamely takes part in the intense media circus that accompanies every Bond film. [2]
Casting history shows the risk. Cubby Broccoli said casting George Lazenby for 1969's On Her Majesty's Secret Service was his biggest mistake in 16 years. [2] Lazenby made just one Bond film before Sean Connery returned to the role. [2]
Marvel's casting of Jonathan Majors in a multi-film villain role led to a scandal, and an announced movie was scrapped. [2]
What it means for you
If you follow the Bond race, treat the odds as odds. Lowden sits at 62%, Turner at 25% and Josh O'Connor at 13%. [1]
Nothing is official, so an announcement is the thing to watch for. [1] Gary Oldman's suggestion and the Morning Show remark that a choice has been made but not announced explain why speculation has grown. [1]
If you want to see Lowden on screen now, he plays River Cartwright on Apple TV's Slow Horses. [2]
Sources
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